NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has identified asteroid 2024 YR4, approximately the size of a football field, with a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.
Recent observations have led to an increased assessment of the potential impact risk posed by asteroid 2024 YR4. Initially, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimated a 1.3% chance of collision on December 22, 2032. However, updated calculations by NASA’s CNEOS have revised this probability to 2.3%, equating to a one-in-43 chance.
Measuring up to 90 meters in width, 2024 YR4 is comparable in size to the Tunguska asteroid that devastated a vast area of Siberian forest in 1908. If it were to enter Earth’s atmosphere and explode as an airburst, the energy released would be equivalent to approximately eight megatons of TNT, more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
Despite these figures, astronomers advise against alarm. Fluctuations in impact probabilities are common as new data becomes available. Historical precedents, such as asteroid 99942 Apophis, initially considered a significant threat, were later determined to pose no danger following further observations. Experts anticipate that as more data is collected, the likelihood of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth will decrease.
In the event that the risk persists, planetary defense initiatives, like NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, have demonstrated the capability to alter an asteroid’s trajectory. Such missions provide a framework for potential deflection strategies should they become necessary.
Continuous monitoring and analysis are essential to refine our understanding of 2024 YR4’s orbit and potential impact risk. As additional observations are made, astronomers expect to provide more accurate predictions and, if needed, develop appropriate mitigation strategies.
