A recent study published in Nature Cities reveals that climate change is poised to significantly elevate the risk of urban fires worldwide in the coming decades. Researchers analyzed fire data and monthly maximum temperatures from over 2,800 cities across 20 countries, encompassing more than 20% of the global population.
The findings indicate that if global warming surpasses 4 degrees Celsius, an estimated 300,000 fire-related deaths and over a million injuries could occur globally by 2100. Conversely, limiting warming to below 1.5C could reduce these impacts by half. Projections under a high-emission scenario suggest a 22.2% rise in outdoor fires and an 11.6% increase in vehicle fires by 2100, while building fires may decline by 4.6%.
The study also highlights regional disparities. For instance, New Zealand exhibits the strongest link between fires and climate change, with urban fires potentially increasing by 40% by 2100 if warming exceeds 4C.
These insights underscore the urgency for developing new fire prevention strategies, such as improved fire fuel management, to mitigate the escalating threat of urban fires in a warming world.